Set Over Set is Magic

The last 24 hours has been magic. +$2.6k on the $2/$4 FTP tables. My game has epitomized the slogan "tight, but aggressive". The biggest downside improvement is increased discipline of not throwing a lot of chips away on bluffs. Achieving an early table image of a tight player, and then being selective in choosing spots to bluff has generated a big improvement in profitability. But, on the upside, my play of big hands has been the bread winner. It's a lesson that is not fully formed, and I welcome your thoughts on how to improve.

Playing a lot tighter pre-flop, even with big hands is a better strategy on the $2/$4 lower-stakes tables. These tend to be a lot looser, with more inexperienced players. So, when you do get a truly big hand, you tend to get a higher percentage of calling stations, paying you off. I am finding it also disguises your big hands, and people just don't give you credit when you hit your set against their AK or PP. Also, these lower-stakes games tend to get a lot of AJ or lower raising/calling raises pre-flop. So, I am throwing away AT and below a lot quicker on these tables and playing the AK/AQ more aggressively, knowing that I'm usually ahead when the A comes on the flop.

Secondly, the strategy that seems to be working best for pocket pairs, especially QQ and below, is to slow play them. So many people will call your $18-30 raises with A-rag, that it just isn't worth pushing hard pre-flop. 35% of the time (and 54% with two callers), they hit their A, K, or Q on the flop. So, instead, when I do hit my set (1 of 8 times), I find that I make more than 8x the $10-20 that I would have made taking down the blinds + a limper/raiser. AND, you disguise your hand, so they have no idea what you're playing. By the time they realize you have hit your set, there's usually $200++ in the pot. Two examples of this are below:

My JJ vs. TT vs. AK
I'm on the button facing a $14 raise and a caller, pot is $34. Usually, I would pot-raise with JJ, hoping to push off over cards. But, instead I just call the $14 and am ready to dump my cards if overs come and/or facing a strong bettor. Flop is JT4 rainbow. The original raiser checks, caller bets the pot of $48. I min-raise to $96. First position calls (AK I'm told after the pot) and the bettor raises to $192. FISH ON!! These tables are not particularly tight, and it probably doesn't matter how I play this as this guy is pot-committed, but instead of pushing, I raised it again to make sure first position folds any straight draw. Second position goes ahead and pushes all-in, and I call to see my Set of JJJ versus his TTT, a one-out wonder. Cha-ching! The Q came on the river made the AK his straight, which he quickly noted after the hand. But, he can't call for the gut-shot, unless he thought a big pair was going to win the hand.

My QQ vs. AK
Pre-flop, facing a raiser and re-raiser, I can see why one would argue that a pot-sized third raise may be in order. However, if I'm against AA or KK or AK, I'm definitely getting called and probably throwing away my hand after a scary flop or a re-raise. This gets expensive. So, instead, I'm calling these bets and getting to the flop as quickly (and cheaply) as possible. If I hit the set, or get a low flop, I'm still going to make enough to warrant the call. In this particular case, I saw the flop for $32 and had position. (Now, in order to make this worthwhile, I need to make at least 5x my money (12% to hit the set and 8% to get a low flop) to justify a call. So that's $192 pot (5x $32 plus my $32). After the flop, the pot stands at $102, so all it takes is a pot-sized bet from an opponent to make the numbers work.) Flop comes 923 two-suited. He leads-out with $51, half-pot bet, which gives me pause, as I may be up against AA or KK. But, with a flush possibility, I don't believe he has a hand (yet). Instead of testing the waters here, I just call, allowing me the ability to throw this hand away if a spade comes on the turn. And, I doubt that he'll fire another bullet on the turn, unless he has me beat. I hit my QQQ set on the turn (this will happen 16% of the time). Now, I could have just been bailed out against AA or KK, but based on his half-pot bet after the flop, I'm pretty sure he is on the flush draw, had top pair on the flop, or still has two overs. He bets $75 into the $208 pot and I raise to $225 (making sure he's not getting odds to call the 18% flush draw), and he quickly calls. The K on the river misses the flush. He bets $150 into $658 pot, which looks like desperation. Now, on the assumption he didn't have KK (flop 1/2 pot bet), I raised to $300 as a value bet. He pushes the remainder of his chips in ($200), calling with suited AK and I took down a $1250 pot. I have been going over this hand in detail, and I could have been more aggressive on the flop with a pot-raise, but with AK suited, there's no way he lays that down. So, again, I think the slow, cautious play can really pay off and prevent being pushed-off a winning hand, even when your opponent is ready to call all of your chips. The bottom line is that avoiding 50/50 races is a long-term positive, because you can play strong hands and only lose about 1/3rd of your chips if the wrong board hits, but still win 100% if you methodically analyze the situation and keep betting when you're ahead.