Thursday, 28 June 2007

Flopping the Nutz

I wish it happened more, but when it does, maximizing your winnings can be the difference between a profitable night and a monster session.

Playing the the $2/$4 NL FTP 6-way table, which has become my staple "just-a-few-hands-before-bed" lullaby, I called a button raise of $14 from the BB with QdTd. I sometimes would re-raise in this situation if the button was abusing me, stealing blinds, but at this table, he raised only about 25% of the time. So, I put the guy on least a medium to strong hand. Flop comes 89J rainbow, giving me the nut straight. NOW WHAT? I want to suck every drop of cash out of this situation without slow playing myself broke. (1) How likely am I to be out-drawn from here? At best he hit a set, and there's 30% chance he makes the boat. Anything else, and he has a 16% chance to improve ( KQ is 10% to make a better straight or two pair is 16%). So, the only thing I have to be careful of is if the board pairs or the T falls. So, post-flop, he leads-out with $30 pot-bet. I min-raise $60, which he is going to call if he caught a piece of the flop, and come over the top if he hit the set, 2-pair, or maybe even had AJ. When he just calls, and then checks the blank 3 on the turn, I'm pretty sure he has a draw, but not much more, and unless the T falls on the river, I'm 95% sure I've got a winner. So, I short-bet the pot, trying to entice a steal attempt. He thinks for a minute and raises the pot. BINGO! I'm all-in. To my surprise, the turns over his two pair, Jh8h. The river misses his 4-outter and I'm whistling Dixie.

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